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由来源发布： 01 三月 2019
预计下一个版本： 01 三月 2020
Economic growth accelerated in more than half the world’s economies in both 2017 and 2018. Developed economies expanded at a steady pace of 2.2 per cent in both years, and growth rates in many countries have risen close to their potential, while unemployment rates in several developed economies have dropped to historical lows. Among the developing economies, the regions of East and South Asia remain on relatively strong growth trajectory, expanding by 5.8 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively in 2018. Many commodityexporting countries, notably fuel exporters, are continuing a gradual recovery, although they remain exposed to volatile prices. The impact of the sharp drop in commodity markets in 2014/15 also continues to weigh on fiscal and external balances and has left a legacy of higher levels of debt.
Global economic growth remained steady at 3.1 per cent in 2018, as a fiscally induced acceleration in the United States of America offset slower growth in some other large economies. Economic activity at the global level is expected to expand at a solid pace of 3 per cent in 2019, but there are increasing signs that growth may have peaked. The growth in global industrial production and merchandise trade volumes has been tapering since the beginning of 2018, especially in trade-intensive capital and intermediate goods sectors. Leading indicators point to some softening in economic momentum in many countries in 2019, amid escalating trade disputes, risks of financial stress and volatility, and an undercurrent of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, several developed economies are facing capacity constraints, which may weigh on growth in the short term.