发生错误 详情 隐藏
您有未保存页面 恢复 取消

On Monday (24 August), global financial markets suffered heavy losses. Markets started to show weakness earlier this summer, weighed down by concerns about a slowdown of China's economy and fears of economic contagion from a potential Greek exit. On Monday morning, Chinese government efforts to inject liquidity to support the tumbling market failed. China's Shanghai Composite Stock Index closed the trading session with a record 8.5 percent loss, erasing all gains made since the start of the year. European stocks, commodities, and emerging markets were all quick to follow the Shanghai Index's lead.

The free fall was aggravated by investors' "flight to quality" and repositioning of carry-trades for major and liquid currencies like the euro and the yen. Unlike in previous years, the decline of risk assets was accompanied by the growth of such currencies as euro, British pound and Swiss franc and the depreciation of US dollar.

The US S&P 500 Stock Index tumbled 3.94 percent on Monday to close at 1893.2 points, the lowest level since November 2014 and the largest single-day and 5-day decline since 2011. Now the main question is: will the market plunge be short-lived or will the markets continue a longer-term decline?

  • Global economy growth is still tenuous for some and markedly slowly for others, feeding concerns for continued decline.
  • According to implied probabilities based on the Fed Funds futures prices, markets have begun pricing out chances that the US Federal Reserve will proceed with a short-term interest rate increase next month, helping at least temporarily boost other major currencies.
  • That said, a weaker US dollar will not necessarily lead to an immediate and substantial return to higher risk assets and a return to more stable market growth. 

相关数据透视

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2017, 2018 and Long Term to 2030

Brent crude oil price will average at $52.4 per barrel in 2017 and increase to $54.1 per barrel in 2018 according to the most recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released monthly. EIA revised up its forecast for 2018 by 2.5 dollars per barrel from the previous release. However, the real price of a barrel of Brent oil - i.e. price adjusted for inflation - will slightly decrease to $50 in 2018 as predicted by OECD in its June's Economic Outlook. After a modest growth in 2018 though, the nominal price of Brent crude will increase to $53.5 a barrel by 2020, as per IMF's Primary Commodity...

Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Long Term 2017 to 2030 | Data and Charts

Autumn and winter are traditionally characterized by the growth in energy consumption and, thus, in prices for energy products. Still, natural gas prices in the US, Europe, and Japan showed different dynamics in November. Thus, the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub, US, fell by 15.2% in November compared to the previous month. This decline - which was the sharpest monthly drop since December of 2014 - interrupted a period of steady growth lasting from April. On the contrary, in Europe, average import border price of natural gas surged by 14.4% - the most dramatic monthly increase over the last 17 years. What for the import price of...

Coal Prices Forecast: Long Term 2017 to 2030 | Data and Charts

2016 was an exceptional year for coal prices. The period of decline which began in 2011, was interrupted by the rapid growth. Coal prices grew by 7-10 percent in November continuing a 24-29 percent growth in October. Since January, when the price of coal reached a 10-year low, coal prices have rebounded by about 100 percent. This situation is attributable to several factors. First, it is the consequence of an implemented policy in China which aimed at reducing harmful emissions. China is the largest coal consumer and coal producer at the same time. The reduction in own-grown production led to the increase in coal imports. Second, not only...

Copper Prices Forecast: Long Term 2017 to 2030 | Data and Charts

Copper price grew by 15.2 percent in November. It was the biggest growth since 2010. The copper market was stagnant for few years. The prices at the moment are too low and producers are reluctant to increase production or develop new sources. They are waiting for prices to rise. Probably, November became the first point of the new growth period. Experts predict price growth after demand in China has grown because of road building. In fact, demand will grow more and more, and some of the economists expect copper deficit and high prices as a result. Leading international agencies made the following copper price predictions:The World Bank in...