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Global oil production remains strong even as some leading industry forecasts suggest that global economic conditions will override low global oil prices to constrain oil demand growth this year.
  • Some leading OPEC producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, are producing at or near record levels, largely offsetting production declines from several OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Many of these OPEC members have relatively low operating costs or are on the upside of years of development to bring online new production and thus may not reduce production in the face of the oil price slump to retain their market shares.
  • In contrast, other major producers, such as Mexico, Nigeria, the United States, and Venezuela, are seeing global oil prices fall below their break-even prices. These producers are working to reign in production costs, manage declining production in major producing fields, and/or expedite rationalization of their domestic industry, spurred by the boom-bust cycle of the market, under investment, and internal regulatory reforms.
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Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2018, 2019 and Long Term to 2030

Brent crude oil prices will average $63.4 per barrel in 2018 and decrease to $62.7 per barrel in 2019, according to the most recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA). This reflects an upward revision of $2.5/barrel to the EIA forecast for 2018 compared to last month's Outlook.The OECD Economic Outlook as of November 2017 was less bullish, pegging the real price of a barrel of Brent oil— i.e. price adjusted for inflation—at $60/barrel in 2018.Looking out to 2020, the IMF in its Primary Commodity Prices Projections released in July asserted that after modest growth in 2018, the...

Cost of Oil Production by Country

The oil price has fallen by more than 30% since Summer 2014. This affected everyone from producers to consumers. The visualization represents Oil Price Dynamics, Breakeven Oil Price which shows oil prices needed to meet general government expenditure and Marginal Cost of Oil Production which shows the change in total cost of producing one additional barrel of oil. World oil price at $55-$60 / barrel is less than the cost of Russian Arctic oil production, Europe and Brazil biofuels production, shale and tight oil production in US and Canada and offshore oil extraction in Brazil. State budgets of oil-producing countries will suffer from oil...

What Drives Global Crude Oil Prices? Supply: OPEC

Total crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an important factor that affects global oil prices. OPEC has historically sought to actively manage oil production among its members by setting production targets by member. As a result, since OPEC's inception, crude oil prices have typically increased when OPEC members agreed to reduce production targets. OPEC member countries produce about 40 percent of the world's crude oil. Equally important to global prices, OPEC's oil exports represent about 60 percent of the total petroleum traded internationally. Because of this market share, OPEC's actions...

What Drives Global Crude Oil Prices? Demand: Non-OECD

Oil consumption in developing countries that are not part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has risen sharply in recent years. While oil consumption in the OECD countries declined between 2000 and 2010, non-OECD oil consumption increased more than 40 percent. China, India, and Saudi Arabia had the largest growth in oil consumption among the countries in the non-OECD during this period. Rising oil consumption reflects rapid economic growth in these countries. Current and expected levels of economic growth heavily influence global oil demand and oil prices. Commercial and personal transportation activities, in...