International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
访问日期： 31 十月, 2013
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050 are produced. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios are presented. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.
Samir KC et al., Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050,
Demographic Research, 22(15), P. 383-472, 16 March 2010: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/15/.