Innovation and Science Australia (ISA)
访问日期： 03 十月, 2018
Metallurgical Coal:The metallurgical coal spot price is forecast to decline from an average of US$193 a tonne in 2018 to US$148 a tonne in 2020, with the impacts of improved supply combined with weakening demand from China expected to outweigh growing demand from India.Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 173 million tonnes in 2017 to 201 million tonnes in 2020, reflecting a steady recovery after Cyclone Debbie in 2017, and modest production growth from new capacity.Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are estimated to have reached a record $38 billion in 2017–18. Earnings are forecast to decline to $32 billion in 2019–20, as lower prices offset rising export volumes.
Iron Ore:The iron ore price is forecast to decline to US$51 a tonne (FOB Australia) in 2020, as a result of an expected decline in steel production in China and a well-supplied seaborne iron ore market.The value of Australia’s iron ore exports is forecast to decrease from $62 billion in 2017–18 to $55 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets growth in export volumes.The key uncertainty underpinning the outlook for the iron ore price is the pace and magnitude of the decline in China’s steel production, which in turn largely depends on government policy.